Germany is entering interesting times. With the decision of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) last week to declare former Minister of Finance Peer Steinbrück as the SPD’s candidate for chancellorship against acting Chancellor Angela Merkel, the election campaign in Germany has officially started.
Who will enter the Federal Chancellery in September 2013? While a prognosis one year before the elections can never be 100 percent accurate, it is able to present a brief portrait about trends and possible coalition options and which in turn will be discussed excessively in German media for the next 12 months.
Let’s talk first about some central issues in this election. First of all, there is the question about the number of political parties that will be represented in the Bundestag. What is clear is that at least four parties will be part of the 18th Bundestag in 2013; the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the SPD, the Greens (Grüne), which has been transformed from an environmentalist to a left-liberal party, and the socialist Left Party (Die Linke). On the other side, according to actual results of different polls, the junior partner of the current coalition government, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), will get only 4 percent of all votes and hence will be under the electoral threshold of 5 percent.
Another political party whose entrance to the Bundestag is also uncertain is the Pirates Party (Piraten), which advocates for the data privacy of Internet users against the state as well as more liberal copyright laws. One year ago all polls estimated the Pirate’s share of votes at 13 percent and some experts believed that they would be the party of the new generation, replacing the Greens as the party of young voters. However, the political inexperience of their politicians and their unrealistic political ideas have ended their meteoric rise and the Pirates have lost electoral favor. Polls state that they will get only 4 percent of all votes and will therefore not be represented in the Bundestag. This information, of course, would be valid if the national election were held next Sunday.
A delicate balance of parties
This important question about the number of political parties in the next Bundestag raises the question about possible coalition constellations, and who then will be Germany’s next chancellor. A majority, 58 percent of all Germans, wants a change of government, but 67 percent of all Germans are also satisfied with the political work of Chancellor Merkel. Nonetheless, if elections were held next Sunday and the Liberals could enter parliament, the ruling Christian Democrats and Liberal coalition would again not get enough votes to govern with a coalition. Nevertheless, poll results also state that a coalition between Social Democrats and the Greens would also not get enough votes to establish a coalition. This means that there will be a search for new coalition alternatives after the election night in September 2013. What are the possible alternatives if neither the CDU can form a coalition with the FDP nor the SPD with the Greens? First, the CDU and the SPD can form a so-called “Big coalition,” again under the chancellorship of Merkel like in 2005-2009.
Nevertheless, it is doubtful if the SPD is ready to put up with a role as junior partner in the government after four years in the opposition. The SPD is starting the electoral campaign with the wish to end nine years of Merkel’s rule. Steinbrück and the SPD will seek for coalition alternatives to prevent a new chancellorship of Merkel. Therefore they favor a second possible coalition between the SPD, the Greens and the Liberals, the so-called “Traffic Lamp Coalition,” because of the three parties’ colors red (SPD), yellow (FDP) and green (Greens).
Nonetheless, this option has some severe problems. First of all, no one is sure if the FDP will be represented in the next Bundestag. Second, if the FDP enters parliament, it is still doubtful if the Greens are ready to enter a coalition with them. From this perspective, Steinbrück has the complicated task of not only leading the election campaign of his own party, but also to start negotiating with both the FDP and the Greens, preparing them for a possible coalition. A political alternative to the FDP and to the Greens does not exist for the SPD. The SPD resists any coalition with the socialist Left Party, due to the fact that both parties hate each other. It will also not seek any alliance with the Pirates, due to their lack of political credibility.
For Merkel the situation is similar, because an alternative to the “Big Coalition” with the SPD does also not exist for her. Merkel’s favored alternative to the “Big Coalition,” the so-called “Jamaica Coalition” between the CDU, the FDP and the Greens, will stay a pipe dream because the Greens reject the concept of joining with the other two parties.
However, Merkel’s advantage is her popularity and respect for her work among voters, whereas Steinbrück has a lack of credibility among his own party members due to his corporation-friendly policy during his time as minister of finance. Hence, it is questionable if and how the SPD will position itself as a left alternative against the CDU and then establish a coalition with the Greens and the FDP. Considering these facts and doubting that the actual voting results of the political parties will change dramatically, we can assume that the chances for a coalition between the CDU and the SPD under Merkel’s chancellorship are very high. Thus, the new and old chancellor will again be Merkel.
What does a new Chancellor Merkel or a change of government under a Chancellor Steinbrück mean for Europe and for Turkey? For Europe, the continuance of Merkel’s chancellorship will raise the pressure on Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc. to continue their austerity policy. Germany and Merkel will be the hated figure in these countries. A new center-left government could start a change. Together with François Hollande in France, Steinbrück could initiate a new economic policy in the EU to fight the actual financial crisis, by stimulating the purchasing power of the people in these countries instead of accepting that the populations of these countries become more and more poor for the sake of a balanced national budget.
On the other hand, together with Nicolas Sarkozy, Merkel was the leading power that stopped the EU candidacy process in Turkey by blocking the start of new chapters of the acquis communautaire. A new center-left government in Germany together with France could reawaken the candidacy process which has fallen asleep, if of course Turkey is also interested in a revitalization of the process.
The aforementioned points illustrates that the elections in Germany in 2013 will not have only an impact on German politics. Germany’s leading role in Europe and especially during the actual economic crisis will make this election also important for the future of other countries. Maybe the chances for a change of government are not high now, but in 12 months anything can happen. Therefore, we should carefully observe the electoral campaign over the next 12 months and the results of this election.
*Cüneyd Dinç is an assistant professor in the department of sociology at Süleyman Şah University.
