President Obama and the First Lady of the USA were the Chief Guests during the 26 January, 2015 Republic Day Parade in New Delhi, India. The US is the oldest democracy and India as the largest democracy are true global partners — both in strengthening economies and strong democracies. Both countries during this visit reached a breakthrough on holding up civil nuclear cooperation between them. ‘The 123 Agreement’ signed by both countries is known as the ‘Indo-US Nuclear Deal’
Why it is called 123?
The name comes from Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act, under which the US has to conclude any bilateral civilian nuclear cooperation agreement.
What are its Key Features ‘The 123 Agreement’?
India can have nuclear cooperation and trade with the US and the others without compromising its weapons program.
India needs not sign Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or put its nuclear facilities under full-scope safeguards.
It gives India assured nuclear fuel supplies for its civilian nuclear reactors in return for them going under permanent safeguards.
It allows India to reprocess and recycle spent fuel.
How Does It Help India Tangibly?
India gets access to more and diversified sources of energy. It breaks open a regime that blocked India’s access to high technology after the nuclear tests it carried out earlier.
Doors will open for hi-tech and dual-use tech in sectors as diverse as IT, defence, space, pharmaceutical etc.
What Are The Strategic Implications For India?
India will get recognition as a state with advanced nuclear technology.
It won’t be a nuclear pariah.
The deal will not be offered to Pakistan.
It gets to keep its nuclear weapons.
What Is The US Interest?
The rise of India helps the US as in the post-Cold War world when India and the US were on the same side.
The deal allows India to achieve its target of 20,000 MW of power by 2020. Also, its clean energy and savings on carbon emission will be big.
It helps containing China.
What Are The Points Of Opposition?
The non-proliferation lobby feels it’s too generous to India.
India should not get the right to reprocess spent fuel.
India will make nuclear-weapons with its own uranium.
The ‘wrong signals’ will go to Iran, North Korea and Pakistan.
It will undermine global non-proliferation systems.
What Are The Possible Pitfalls?
If India conducts a nuclear test, the deal could fall apart.
The bar on tests would be upheld by the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG).
China may intensify nuclear-support to Pakistan and North Korea.
How Is The HYDE ACT Relevant?
The US, according to its Atomic Energy Act, cannot have nuclear cooperation with a country that has not signed the NPT or submitted itself to safe guards. The Hyde Act gives the US administration the waiver to reach a pact with India, which has not signed the NPT. But there is a rider-that India should work with the US to contain Iran’s nuclear-program. The government claims this foreign policy prescription is not binding and the deal won’t come unstuck if India ignores it, but the critics of the deal seek further clarifications.
Political Implications for the Modi Government
The Left parties did not support the government on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal.
The Left feels that Prime Minister Modi has not been transparent and taken them in confidence as the Indo-US Deal dilutes India’s sovereignty.
Cooperating with the US against Iran’s nuclear program will appease domestic the Muslim population and the Muslim countries that are major suppliers of hydro carbon oils to India.
Going back on the agreement will tarnish India’s image internationally and failure of Indian diplomacy. It will isolate India globally.
The US will be upset and not support India for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Economic aid and bilateral relations will be adversely affected.
China and Pakistan would be happy if the Indo-US deal was in trouble.
Tarnishes the Indian Congress Party- the main opposition party’s image and gives avoidable leverage to Modi’s Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and the Left front. The Left gets a pat from China.
123 Indo-US Pact: Did India Get Better a Deal than China?
India will get fuel supplies BUT China will not.
India has reprocessing rights BUT China does not.
China has accepted inspections BUT India has not.
China’s relations are linked with agreement BUT India has no such linkages.
In china’s case, US domestic laws do not triumph over international obligations BUT it does in India’s case.
Facts about the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Safeguards.
What is IAEA?
This is an international body set up in 1957 and based in Vienna.
It encourages peaceful uses of atomic energy.
It was chosen by NPT to act as watch dog of treaty.
It keeps track of nuclear programs of NPT signatories to ensure no country makes nuke weapons from civilian facilities.
What is NPT?
This 1970 treaty limits the spread of nuclear weapons. So far, 189 countries have signed it except India, Pakistan and Israel. The treaty recognizes the US, Russia, UK, France & China as “nuclear weapons states” and the others as the “non-nuclear weapons states”. These countries are expected to have agreements with the IAEA, which monitors their nuclear programs.
What are Safeguards?
These are verification procedures of civilian nuclear facilities, where all nuclear material and activities are subject to monitoring.
What is India’s status in NPT & IAEA?
India has NOT signed the NPT but it is member of the IAEA.
Indo-US Nuclear Deal and Implications in South Asia.
Pakistan wanted a similar situation as India, a nuclear agreement signed with the US, which the US has not agreed to.
Pakistan-China and China–North Korea expedited their nuclear deals to counter Indo–US Nuclear Deal.
India has declared it will never strike first. Pakistan, North Korea and China being big bullies, will not hesitate striking first.
While India’s nuclear programs are for peaceful purposes, getting over energy crises and seek nuclear help in peaceful research, medical and agriculture fields, the Pakistan- China- North Korea axis is purely involved in developing nuclear weapons and their delivery means for offensive purposes.
North Korea recently ‘tested new high powered nuclear ballistic missile engine’ with increasing range to target as far as the US.
Pakistan has been dealing with Saudi Arabia to transfer some nuclear weapons so that the Saudis can deter Iran’s influence in the Middle East and the Syrian /ISIS fiasco with the connivance of China. Saudi Arabia is a major source of economic aid to Pakistan and both are predominantly Sunni majority countries while Iran has a Shia majority. Pakistan has discreetly warned Iran of the drastic consequences if it attacked Saudi Arabia. It is indeed making the world closer to a third world war scenario.
Some fear Saudi Arabia already has secretly acquired some tactical nuclear bombs from Pakistan and Iran too is secretly developing nuclear arsenal to counter the geo-strategic nuclear threat of the Saudis.
Much to the annoyance of India, President Obama, in his own wisdom, has approved sales of F16s to Pakistan as the US wants to remain happy over its Afghanistan policies. This will help Pakistan use these weapons in future Indo-Pakistani conflict(s).
Pakistan is nearly a failed state and its small nuclear arsenals can fall in the hands of radicals that could be used against India to create havoc.
Besides the US, India has signed nuclear agreements for peaceful purposes with large numbers of countries that include Argentina, Australia, Canada, France Russia, the UK and South Korea.
No major change in the US foreign policy towards India and the Indo-US relations is expected irrespective of whether Donald Trump (Republican) or Hillary Clinton (Democrat) is elected as the next US president in the November, 2016 presidential election. While Democratic presidents Cinton and Obama have been pro-India and Hillary Clinton being friendly to India will further strengthen bilateral relations, the Republican candidate Trump’s anti-Muslim policies would but naturally tilt towards India if he was to be elected as the next president of the US. No wonder the ‘Mail Today’ dated 10 April, 2016 carries as its major article ‘Indo-US ties more serious than Pakistan’.