Fair or not, perceptions matter in every field of life, sometimes to the extent that reality becomes trivial. In politics, the successful management of perceptions is much more crucial and even becomes an art.This past week, some of the results of Ankara-based Metropoll, a private company of social and political research, made headlines mainly because of the surprising results in terms of the presidential elections in 2014. The most striking result of the poll followed a question asking respondents about their choice if both were to run for president: 51 percent preferred incumbent President Abdullah Gül over Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with 22.7 percent, whose presidential ambitions are known by all by now. It is known that non-Justice and Development Party (AK Party) voters tend to favor Gül over Erdoğan mainly because of the former’s moderate style and his balanced performance during his tenure in Çankaya Palace. Nobody, probably even Gül himself, knows whether he would run for president when the time comes, especially against Erdoğan with whom he established the AK Party together, but it is clear that high approval rates for Gül gives him leverage in future political scenarios especially when 74 percent of the 59.5 percent who would approve of a second term for Gül are AK Party voters.
Since the presidential election process will have critical consequences for the country, international newspapers also paid attention to the poll results. Although two years is a long time in politics in any stable and normal country, let alone Turkey with a head-spinning agenda, the poll results are worth evaluating. The poll — which is conducted at regular intervals with the same questions — includes significant clues not only in terms of the presidential elections, but also about the overall approval of the government’s policies and the Syrian issue in particular.
The relative decrease in contentment with life, growing sense of insecurity and a sense of a lack of freedom, even among AK Party voters, is worth paying attention to. Although 48 percent of the general population were contented with their lives, this figure fell from 60 percent in June 2012. In addition, among the 50 percent who said that the overall situation in Turkey is getting worse, 28 percent are AK Party voters. With or without any concrete grounds, 46 percent say that they do not feel free — 28 percent of whom are again AK Party voters.
The increasing number of terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) attacks, the downing of the Turkish jet — the reasons for which are still not clear — and the big explosion in the ammunition depot in Afyon have all most likely contributed to the increase in the figures regarding insecurity. What is more interesting than the 55 percent who do not feel secure currently when compared to last year, is that 39 percent of them said they voted for the AK Party.
In terms of foreign policy, Syria turned out to be a litmus test. Given the astonishingly high number of people who do not approve of the establishment of refugee camps for Syrians who fled from the atrocities of the regime (52 percent), and the 66 percent who say that the government should not admit any more refugees, it seems that the negative campaign by the Turkish media about the refugees had an impact on the public’s opinion. Aside from the refugee issue, 56 percent of the general public believe that the government did not handle the Syria case successfully, among which 39.2 percent are AK Party voters. The overwhelmingly high number of people (76 percent) who opposed a unilateral intervention in Syria is expected, but 58 percent are against an intervention by NATO, probably because of the probable high cost of an intervention in our next-door neighbor.
It is too soon to argue that there is a decline in the votes for the AK Party, especially in the face of an extremely weak opposition in the parliament, which should be alarming for any democracy. However, the approximately 30 percent of the AK Party voters who are somewhat critical and discontented with the current picture should be a warning to the government, which acts almost unilaterally without any real challenge to its policies. It might also correspond to the traditionally volatile portion of the Turkish electorate.
The extremely low approval ratings for the opposition gives little hope for the emergence of a solid alternative. Although Erdoğan’s ratings as the most liked “leader” are in decline — from 50 percent in May to 34 percent currently — he is by far uncontested; Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) received only 4.8 percent. The lack of a second leader whom the Turkish people can think of is, in a way, evidence that he is approved as the head of an active government while Gül is perceived as a balanced and impartial president.
Although the PKK issue is among the top problems according to the poll results, public opinion is divided into almost half between those who believe a military solution is the best way to address the issue and between those who don’t. Similarly, 57 percent approve a possible closure of the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP). On the other hand, there is strong skepticism towards the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) as 59 percent do not believe that the Uludere incident, the explosion in Afyon and the crashed plane were adequately investigated.
Clearly, speculations, as well as even personal factors, have had an impact on all of these results. This wave of pessimism might change with a series of positive developments. However, among all these pessimism, it should be noted that the ones who believe that this Parliament will be able to make a new Constitution (56 percent) is still higher than those who do not believe so, although the new Constitution was placed on the back-burner.
With reference to statistics, some say that it is an art of manipulating numbers. If consistent and repeated, numbers still can have strong signals; signals that the artists of perception management, skilled politicians for instance, should take into account in any country.
(Today’s Zaman)
