Election forecasting services are starting to project an Electoral College majority for President Obama.
The current Moody’s Analytics presidential election model gives President Obama 303 electoral votes, saying that “weak job reports this past summer appear to have had little effect on the presidential race.”
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Moody’s puts Obama ahead in most of the closer swing states, including Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia.
But there is more than a month — and three presidential debates — before Election Day on Nov. 6. And one big issue is still out there: unemployment.
“A high national unemployment rate looms as a threat to Obama’s re-election,” Moody’s notes.
It adds: “In the 19 states, plus the District of Columbia, where the jobless rate tops 8%, the Moody’s Analytics model expects a ‘grumpy voter’ effect to lower the incumbent’s total as citizens express their lingering frustration with the economy despite recent progress.
“This could have a measurable impact in four swing states: North Carolina, Indiana, Florida and Nevada.”
(USA Today)
