The Collapse of the Regime in Iran Has Begun

In Iran, Mesud Pezeshkian once I have stated that he “could be the regime’s last elected president”. The process for the downfall of the mullah regime actually began quite some time ago. However, at this point, events are unfolding that will drive the final nail into its coffin. The regime is experiencing its weakest phase, having exhausted all its arguments. After 46 years of dominance, it is now a worn-out government, facing an angry population, and people are only waiting for a small spark to drive them to hammer that final nail in. Let’s explore how we’ve arrived at this stage, step by step.

Economic Reasons in Iran

The primary reason that has brought the public to a boiling point is undoubtedly the economic situation. Rampant corruption, the depletion of resources for foreign adventures in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and military armament, the diversion of income to a certain elite group, particularly the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Western sanctions have all led the country’s economy to the brink of collapse. For example, it was announced that in the most recent school year, 970,000 school students were not enrolled due to families being unable to afford basic costs. Despite being rich in energy resources, Iran is experiencing electricity shortages, and daily power cuts have become a routine in all provinces, including the capital, Tehran. According to the Minister of Energy, at least $110 billion would be needed just to meet the country’s current energy needs, and to cover the next 25–30 years of demand, at least $300 billion in new investment is required. However, the regime’s coffers are empty. During Obama presidency, annual oil revenues of İran was around $120 billion, but in recent years, it has dropped to $36 billion. With Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy, Iran can no longer even sell to its most loyal customer, China, leading to a near-zero foreign exchange income.

The Iranian rial has lost more than 50% of its value against the dollar in the last six months (the exchange rate has gone from 60,000 toman to 94,000 toman). As a result, inflation has surged, directly affecting the population with rising costs. A large portion of the population is struggling to meet basic needs, especially food. Protests and demonstrations, particularly by pensioners calling for better wages and living conditions, have become a daily occurrence in various parts of the country. Specifically, chronic and severe illnesses requiring imported medication cannot be treated due to shortages, leading to a rising death toll from the lack of medicine. While many other examples can be given under the economic headline, these examples should provide a sufficient overview of the country’s situation.

Inefficiency and Lack of Equal Opportunities

Nepotism and kleptocracy may be two of the best words to describe the current regime in Iran. The theocratic regime is essentially just a structure that allows these two phenomena to flourish and continue. In Iran, to lead a project, take on a responsibility, or hold a management position, one must be either a top-level ally of the regime or a relative of these key figures. The issues outlined under the economic section are a direct result of the ineptness of such a ruling elite. A simple example would be the late Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian, who tragically died in a helicopter crash that he spoke English at a high school level. Young people with education and skills are fleeing the country to escape hopelessness. All major industries and businesses are owned by members of this elite group. To protect their incomes, the regime has imposed high tariffs on imports, effectively forcing the population to settle for substandard products. This situation has given rise to a large and increasingly dissatisfied population that has no access to wealth or power.

Ideological Opposition in Iran

We can confidently state that at least 70% of the Iranian population is opposed to the current regime. The most tangible evidence of this was the 40% voter turnout in the last presidential elections, when Mesud Pezeshkian ran as a surprise candidate. Under normal circumstances, voter turnout would have been less than 30%. However, Pezeshkian’s alternative platform and promises drew in around 40% of the electorate. This 70% of the population includes groups ranging from far-leftists and monarchists to liberal democrats, moderate conservatives, and a large mass of people simply focused on economic survival. This majority wants the mullah regime to go.

Geopolitical Developments

Hamas’s actions on October 7, 2023, marked a critical turning point for the region; nothing has been the same since. This event symbolized the collapse of 20th-century paradigms and the beginning of 21st-century dynamics. It signified the end of the period where Iran and Israel both needed each other as enemies and put an end to Iran’s role in creating instability and posing a threat across the region, including among the Gulf countries. The fantasy of the Shiite Crescent has crumbled. For decades, this was used as a tool to create a threat against Gulf nations. Iran constantly faced tensions with its neighbors. For example, in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Iran sided with Armenia against Azerbaijan and Turkey. Iran intervened in Syria with 120,000 mercenaries and became involved in Palestinian and Yemeni issues, either directly or indirectly. However, Azerbaijan won in Nagorno-Karabakh, opposition forces, supported by Turkey, overthrew the Ba’ath regime in Syria, Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon has waned, and the Tehran regime found itself retreating, weakened, and with reduced power. The dream of dividing and surrounding the Sunni world with the Shiite Crescent ended, and now Iran is surrounded by the Gulf countries to the south, Afghanistan and Pakistan to the east, and Turkish states to the north and northwest. All of its geopolitical projects and investments have collapsed, further weakening the country, and Iran is now entering a period where it is likely to become more isolated and trapped within its borders.

Due to all these factors, the Tehran regime is now in the process of collapse. Of course, there is a possibility that Pezeshkian may resign, as he previously stated that he would step down if he fails to deliver on his promises. If that happens, the title of “last president” would pass to an another “appointed” new figure. We will explore the potential scenarios for how this “collapse” process may unfold in the next article.

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Articles of Nimetullah YILDIRIM