The United States of America is not only a super power but also the oldest democracy in the world. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) is emerging as a super power due to its large size, huge armed forces, growing economy and population but it is as yet nowhere near the US or the erstwhile Soviet Union. It has a long disputed border with India. In 2015-16 its economic growth has been the lowest in the last seven years. Currently, other than some irritants, it does not pose any major threat to US supremacy. However, it does pose a major potential threat to India.
India is the largest democracy in the world. While China, the US, Japan and the European Union (EU) are stagnating and there is recession around the world, the Indian economic growth at 7.5% stands the highest. India stands 4th surpassing Japan and trailing behind China and the US. With China’s economic stagnation, dubious figures and Russia’s tumbling economy, India may surpass China and Russia and be at number 2 by the next decade and a half. India is an emerging power but is yet behind China for claims to a super power honor, which is difficult but not impossible to achieve.
Indian armed forces and fire power ranks fourth in the world. It has a strong industrial and agricultural base and has large numbers of doctors, scientists including nuclear, technologists, and IT specialists working in many EU countries and the US, especially in NASA and the IT and health sectors. However, India has certain inherent deficiencies such as lack of jobs, corruption, lack of good governance, little international reach and pro-active diplomacy. Also, its progress is often derailed with insecure borders and irked relationships both with Pakistan and China, who are allies and nuclear powers that can offer a united front in any future conflicts. With good governance while first two can be easily achieved, once India acquires permanent membership of the United Nations’ Security Council (UNSC), the other two would automatically be addressed. Pakistan, as the hotbed and cradle of terrorism, sooner or later, unless it mends its ways, will be declared as a failed state. India is one of the largest contributors of troops for the peace keeping operations of the UN and has earned a good name for its military efforts. The Indian naval flotilla keeps visiting foreign friendly ports as a diplomatic initiative and as an emerging super power. Our nuclear and space achievements add to our emerging status.
India’s Relations with the US
India-US relations by and large have been cordial except for the Nixon era. It started with President Clinton and PM Bajpei, got cemented by President Bush and PM Manmohan Singh by signing nuclear deal, while President Obama, with his personal equation with PM Modi, described it as a ‘defining relationship’. Along with EU, NATO allies, Japan, Russia and to some extent Pakistan due to strategic implications, the Indo-US relations are warm and cordial. The US and most of the NATO allies and Japan support India’s inclusion as a permanent member of the UNSC. Afghanistan was the rallying point to fight terrorism for both the countries though some prickly issues prevailed. These nagging issues between both the countries listed below need deliberations and amicable solutions:
Many migrant Indians, it is felt are encroaching upon jobs in the US creating unemployment for US citizens. To curb this trend, Indian academic, engineering, technical, and IT degrees/qualifications are not being recognized by the US.
India’s stand on climate changes issues and emission norms standards irk the US.
Intellectual Property rights.
The slow support of the US in India becoming a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) for strategic, diplomatic, and economic reasons.
Sale of F-16s to Pakistan.
Though on one hand the US supports India’s efforts to fight terrorism, it has not fully supported India’s major role in rebuilding Afghanistan which has been devastated by decades of fighting and anarchy vis-à-vis Pakistan.
No support for India-Iran pipeline over its poor relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia’s concerns.
Not pressurizing Pakistan to desist Chinese development projects in POK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir), which India feels Pakistan is occupying illegitimately.
The US is not supporting for instance, retrospective tax and host of other issues.
Failure to sign the Trade Facilitation Agreement that was discussed in WTO, Geneva whereby India wanted some concessions in food stockpiling.
India’s stand that the US government pays more attention to the Middle East than India. The US feels India is not appreciably supporting the its involvement in Syria and Iraq, fighting ISIS and migration of the refugees to EU.
The new US work visa restrictions to limit the number of Indian IT professionals working in Silicon Valley.
India not supporting the US policies over Israel and Ukraine.
India’s Relations with China
Out of the total length of the Indian land border of 14,103 km, both China and Pakistan share disputed land border of 3,380 and 2,912 km respectively. Since both China and Pakistan are best allies, almost half of the Indian border is under conflict. India’s relations with China and Pakistan are characterized by border wars and in the Sino-Indian War of 1962 between the two neighboring Asian giants, where India suffered humiliating defeat and the 1971 Indo-Pak War led to the liberation of Bangladesh. However, in the last 3 decades, both countries have endeavored to improve diplomatic and economic ties and now China is the largest trading partner of India and both Asian giants are improving military and strategic relationships. Still, some of the major Sino-Indian irritants are as listed below:
Numerous border skirmishes and ignominious defeat and humiliation India suffered in the 1962 Sino-Indian War. Besides, there have been numerous border violation incidents between both the countries.
The Brahmaputra River water distribution and management is one of the major irritants as the Chinese have constructed numbers of super dams upstream in Tibet, depriving down stream water to India and Bangladesh.
Fear that during the Monsoon, China will release huge quantities of water in the Brahmaputra River flooding plains of India and Bangladesh.
Asylum to Tibetan dissident leader Dalai Lama and his followers in India and letting them form government in exile in Dharamshala. There are large numbers of Tibetan refugees staying all over India causing huge economic and demography burden on India.
China’s strategic relationship with Pakistan, development of Gawadar Port and creating industrial and commercial corridor from China to the Arabian Sea via POK which is part of India but illegally held by Pakistan. This port will provide an international trade hub for Pakistan.
Connecting Central Asia, South Asia and Middle East.
Not restraining Pakistan, its best ally to stop radical Muslim terrorist attacks in India.
India has a huge trade deficit, heavily in favor of China.
China blocked India’s move in the UN to list Pakistan based Jaish-e- Muhammad Chief Masood Azar as an international terrorist as India issued a visa to Dolkun Isa, leader of the Uyghur Congress to visit Dharamshala for a conference later in April and succumbed to Beijing’s pressure, evoking it while it was not known it would declare Masood Azar international terrorist.
With increasingly warm and cordial relations and commerce along with social, cultural, economic and diplomatic initiatives with the US, China suspects India has fallen in the US trap.
China opposes India’s admission as permanent member in the UNSC.
China opposes India membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
China has tried to encircle India by developing Gawadar Port, connecting Nepal with rail head, developing ports in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Mauritius and other Indian Ocean small island countries.
China dislikes India’s initiatives of oil exploration in South China Sea.
Conclusion
For India, cordial relations are important not only with the US and China but all other countries. Since India led a non-aligned movement, it has supported those initiatives that strengthened peace, tranquility, elimination of hunger, disease, illiteracy, malnutrition, disaster management and growth of every country while refrained from military intervention. One needs to understand the US diplomacy of supporting India is to check the spectacular rise of China. We need to also understand that historically, 3 million Indian diaspora has played an important role in the US economy, development, socially and culturally. For India both the US and China are as important as the EU or Japan and Russia and both China and the US realize antagonizing India means losing a big market for their goods and services that will wreck their economies.
To improve its eminence, India has launched diplomatic initiatives with the External Affairs Minister visiting Iran and Russia and Defense Minister visiting China while PM Modi heads for his fourth visit to the US. After his visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, he will visit Iran in May and send an Indian naval flotilla to the Middle East. It is in the interest of all the three big countries to narrow down their differences and especially for China to resolve the border and river water dispute with India and Tibet-related issues and be the world’s leaders. India’s interest should not be China or Pakistan-centric with aims to improve trade and bilateral relations with them. India needs to grow from its regional to a global reach. Giving logistic support to American war ships during Nehru’s days of non-alignment were unthinkable.