While Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is gearing up on Sunday for a major overhaul in its party administration, the popular prime minister and chairman of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, will see his skills put to the test as to whether he is able to make a smooth transition in passing the torch from the old guard to a new breed of politicians.
He may very well be creating a major rift in his party with the first application of the self-imposed maximum-three-term rule, paving the way for factionalism and fragmentation. The stakes are huge for him and for the country if he fails to consolidate the AK Party with new recruits. The marginalization of many veteran politicians in the AK Party based on this rule may antagonize what may be described as a disgruntled faction within the party.This may in turn lead to a split and the emergence of a new party within.
By masterfully turning an otherwise ordinary party congress into a major showdown attended by foreign dignitaries, Erdoğan is trying to limit damage from the likely fallout of disqualifying the old guard, some of whom are the party’s very founders. In a way, the party congress is a political instrument that Erdoğan and his aides want to utilize in order to project solidarity and unity among the rank and file of the party membership.
That may prove to be difficult to achieve, however. Mustafa Kamalak, chairman of the Felicity Party (SP), told Sunday’s Zaman that Erdoğan is making a huge mistake by reshuffling people with newcomers. “The three-term rule will hurt the delicate balance within the AK Party. Many AK Party deputies are afraid to speak up against this rule. This shows the party has become a one-man show with no intra-party democracy,” he warned.
Kamalak believes the AK Party is already suffering from fatigue, lack of hope and stagnation. “On many issues like a surge in terrorism and the resurfacing of economic difficulties, the AK Party government is struggling to cope. Erdoğan is trying to mask his weaknesses behind the huge show he puts on at the party’s congress,” he stated.
The 4th party congress of the AK Party is expected to attract 40,000 people, including hundreds of reporters, delegates and visitors. The AK Party wants to turn the convention into a major show of solidarity among the party rank and file while trying to lure as many as 40 foreign dignitaries, including Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) leader Massoud Barzani and Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.
The strong undercurrent resisting the application of the term limit may be overshadowed by the huge crowd at the party congress but is expected to linger on when the convention is over. Many analysts expect there will be an undeclared war waged by the old guard who believe they have rightfully earned the right to climb up the next step of the ladder and despise newcomers whom they think are cutting the lines.
Despite the risk of alienating the 73 AK Party deputies who cannot run for another term, Erdoğan has repeatedly said he will not waiver on the rule. He said the rules of the game were set in advance and very clear. According to Article 132 of the party’s bylaws, those who have run for Parliament on three consecutive occasions cannot run for Parliament again, regardless of whether they have been elected on each occasion. Seventeen ministers in the AK Party government also fall into this category.
Erdoğan knows that he has to find acceptable positions, either at the municipal level, party management or in the government bureaucracy, for these people in order to prevent their possible split from the party. People close to Erdoğan say he is very much aware of the risk of stirring up a major controversy within the upper echelon of the party, setting the stage for a possible confrontation between the old guard and new recruits. They say he will do everything in his power to contain the damage from the fallout of the ban on three-term politicians. Time will tell whether his strategy will hold up to the challenge.
The new face of the party will indicate how the balance of power among senior members of the AK Party will be structured relative to the uncontested chairman, Erdoğan, while his keynote speech will signal the priorities of the government both at home and abroad for the next three years. On Sunday, delegates will vote for Erdoğan’s candidate list for the 50-member Central Decision and Administration Board (MKYK), the all-powerful party management. There is not expected to be any challenge to his nominee list.
Erdoğan will draw his 16-member Central Executive Board (MYK), the executive organ of the party, based on the MKYK list. A week from Sunday, he will choose names for the deputy chairman positions dealing with a variety of party affairs. The names elected to be in the core staff of the party management will show whether the AK Party will move for a more confrontational style of politics or seek to maintain dialogue with other parties. For example, signing up popular politician Numan Kurtulmuş, the former leader of the Voice of the People Party (HAS Party), will indicate that the AK Party is ready for compromises in politics because Kurtulmuş is known as a compromise seeker and bargain maker.
On the other hand, another newcomer to the AK Party, former Democrat Party (DP) leader Süleyman Soylu, is a tough politician. He may be appointed to a senior position as well. Soylu, an articulate politician and a great orator, may come in handy when Prime Minster Erdoğan wants to hammer down on the opposition.
In an interview with Sunday’s Zaman, DP leader Gültekin Uysal explained that the AK Party is going through an internal division, especially among the upper echelon of the party management. “The party is having a hard time managing the process leading up to the local elections next year, to be followed by the presidential and parliamentary elections,” he said, stressing that the new transfers Erdoğan signed up to the AK Party are nothing more than window-dressing for the voters. “The party behaves like a Baathist party that incorporates even different opposition movements within itself,” he noted. “In other words, the AK Party wants to play both the governing and opposition party roles at the same time,” Uysal underlined.
Erdoğan’s new party management structure will also help shape the parliamentary group management of the AK Party, which will further shed light on whether the party will return to its original reformist spirit or shy away from adopting democratic reforms. Many commentators in Turkey accuse the AK Party government of stalling reforms in Turkey, with the EU membership talks having practically ground to a halt. The track record of the government’s legislative work since the June 12, 2011 elections has also been disappointing to many.
The democratization efforts were partially rolled back with new pieces of legislation the government pushed through Parliament as transparency and accountability were dealt a blow with increased immunities for government employees and the trimming of power from the Court of Accounts. The progress on the new constitution is being criticized for moving at a snail’s pace.
Masum Türker, the leader of the Democratic Left Party (DSP), said the three-term rule disrupted intra-party balance. “They are now seeking to regain that balance which seems to be difficult to achieve,” he told Sunday’s Zaman, adding that large segments of Turkish voters have withdrawn their support from the AK Party according to polling surveys. “Economic problems and terrorism have hurt the popularity of the AK Party. The planned mega-show at the party congress on Sunday will serve as a masquerade for the mistakes of the government,” he said.
Despite all criticism, the AK Party still remains the only agent for change in Turkey as there is no formidable opposition to challenge its authority. The main opposition Republican Peoples’ Party (CHP) has failed to overcome bitter intra-party fighting between the reformist wing, represented at the leadership level, and the old establishment, which is still strong at the grassroots level. The number three party in Turkish politics, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), has shown no interest in becoming a real challenger to the ruling party and the party leadership is simply content with making it over the 10 percent election threshold the MHP garners at elections.
The lack of strong opposition does not mean, however, that the AK Party government will have a smooth ride leading up to the 2013 election year, to be followed by the presidential and parliamentary elections.
(Today’s Zaman)
