Turkey, which has long criticized the Syrian regime for its deadly 16-month-long crackdown on anti-regime protests, faces serious pitfalls in the Syrian crisis, which has evolved through a regional crisis, jeopardizing the stability of Turkey in several respects.
Experts agree that increasingly isolated Syria has nothing to lose while Turkey, with its growing economy and active foreign policy, faces serious threats ranging from increasing violence of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to growing numbers of refugees crossing the border, from valuable trade in the Middle East and the Gulf markets to the image problem of exercising hard power. But the worst threat is the increasing likelihood of sectarian war in Syria, which may spill over into other countries in the region, including Turkey.
The threat Syria poses has escalated with the shooting down of an unarmed Turkish jet by Syrian forces last Friday, which according to Ankara was on a solo mission to test domestic radar systems.
Syria described its shooting down of the Turkish F-4 jet as an act of self-defense, and Turkey, while saying the incident would “not go unpunished,” emphasized that it does not intend to go to war with Syria.
Sedat Laçiner, the rector of Çanakkale 18 Mart University, told Sunday’s Zaman that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime is trying to pull Turkey into a war, adding that Assad’s regime would obtain several advantages from this. “Firstly, if Turkey and Syria engaged in a war, the Assad regime would use this war as a pretext to intensify its power, showing its people that it is fighting against an occupying power. Secondly, the Assad regime would portray this war as a Turkish-Arab conflict in order to gain the support of the Arab world, representing itself as a hero of the Arab world. Thirdly, in the case of a war, the Syrian issue would evolve into a bilateral issue between Turkey and Syria, which would ease pressures on the Assad regime as attention would turn from Syrian internal politics to bilateral politics,” said Laçiner. Fawaz Tello, a prominent dissident who resigned from Syria’s main opposition umbrella group in exile, the Syrian National Council (SNC), last May, told Sunday’s Zaman that Turkey was willing to stop what was happening in Syria, particularly after Assad failed to fulfill his commitments, adding that Turkey needs support from the international community if it is to take the initiative in Syria.
“Turkey wants to take a step in Syria but needs political and financial support from both the regional actors and the international actors, including NATO and the UN. It is very obvious that Turkey, in the event of a conflict with Syria, will not only face the Assad regime but also Assad’s allies, including Iran, Russia and China,” said Tello.
Russia and China have used their power of veto twice in the UN Security Council to shield Syria from harsher international sanctions, arguing firmly against a military intervention.
Syria allowed Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the PKK, now imprisoned on the island of İmralı, to take shelter and direct the terrorist organization from within its borders for several years, ending in 1998 when Syria had to deport Öcalan because of pressure from Turkey. It seems inclined to play the PKK card against Turkey, since its neighbor to the north has taken a hard line on the issue and criticized Damascus when it chose to crush demonstrations calling for reforms by opening fire on protestors.
It is claimed that the Syrian regime, which was giving the PKK a hard time until very recently, has started to allow PKK members to live in a certain region mostly populated by Kurds in Syria.
A military confrontation between Turkey and Syria would allow Damascus to play the PKK card much more openly and effectively against Turkey.
Regarding the PKK threat, Laçiner stated that since last year Syria has been involved in the PKK issue, inciting PKK attacks in Turkey. “Syria is ready to support the PKK to the utmost. As the relations have become strained between the two countries, PKK attacks have also increased,” said Laçiner.
Agreeing with Laçiner, Tello stated that the Assad regime was going to play the PKK card, which was very dangerous for the Turkish state and its sovereignty. “Assad is going to allow the PKK to continue their activities on Syrian soil and will also arm them,” said Tello.
